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China's PMI Was 50.3 Percent in November
2014-12-05 11:37:27 visits:1092

Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)

In November 2014, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.3 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower over last month, but continued to stay above the threshold, indicating that China's manufacturing sector continued to maintain expansion in general.

  

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 51.6 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, continued to stay above the threshold; that of medium-sized and small-sized enterprises were 48.4 and 47.6 percent respectively, down by 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, both stayed below the threshold.

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold, while the employed person index and main raw materials inventory index were lower than the threshold.

Production index was 52.5 percent, decreased 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, still stayed above the threshold, indicating a continued expansion of manufacturing production, while the growth had slowed.

New orders index was 50.9 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, still higher than the threshold, showing that the market demand of manufacturing sector continued to increase, with a narrowed growth rate.

Employed erson index was 48.2 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, continued to stay below threshold, indicating that the labor employment of manufacturing enterprises reduced.

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.7 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points over last month, continued to stay below the threshold, indicating that the raw material inventory for manufacturing production continued to fall.

Supplier delivery time index was 50.3 percent, increased 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers had been accelerated.

China's manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013-November

51.4

54.5

52.3

47.8

49.6

50.6

December

51.0

53.9

52.0

47.6

48.7

50.5

2014-January

50.5

53.0

50.9

47.8

48.2

49.8

February

50.2

52.6

50.5

47.4

48.0

49.9

March

50.3

52.7

50.6

47.8

48.3

49.8

April

50.4

52.5

51.2

48.1

48.3

50.1

May

50.8

52.8

52.3

48.0

48.2

50.3

June

51.0

53.0

52.8

48.0

48.6

50.5

July

51.7

54.2

53.6

49.0

48.3

50.2

August

51.1

53.2

52.5

48.6

48.2

50.0

September

51.1

53.6

52.2

48.8

48.2

50.1

October

50.8

53.1

51.6

48.4

48.4

50.1

November

50.3

52.5

50.9

47.7

48.2

50.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production and Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013-November

50.6

50.5

53.6

52.5

47.9

45.3

54.9

December

49.8

49.0

52.7

52.6

46.2

45.1

49.4

2014-January

49.3

48.2

51.0

49.2

46.5

45.7

51.3

February

48.2

46.5

49.4

47.7

47.8

45.1

61.8

March

50.1

49.1

50.3

44.4

48.3

44.8

62.7

April

49.1

48.6

50.6

48.3

47.3

44.9

59.6

May

49.3

49.0

52.3

50.0

47.1

46.0

56.2

June

50.3

49.2

52.0

50.1

47.3

46.2

54.8

July

50.8

49.3

53.0

50.5

47.6

46.4

55.3

August

50.0

48.5

51.9

49.3

48.1

45.9

57.9

September

50.2

48.0

51.2

47.4

47.2

45.6

56.0

October

49.9

47.9

50.7

45.1

47.9

44.7

54.1

November

48.4

47.3

50.5

44.7

47.2

43.9

52.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.

2.Statistical Coverage

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011). The survey sample was expanded from 820 to 3000 since January 2013.

3. Survey Methods

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 12 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

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